TRENDS

MARGINAL TREND’S TOP GLOBAL/U.S ECONOMIC TRENDS OF 2010*

  1. Price of oil will continue to rise.
  2. Inflation will become a focus- Interest rate policy will shift.
  3. Unemployment  peaks, and remains flat.
  4. Commercial real estate continues to deteriorate. Vacancy rates continue to rise. (The LBO bust continues).
  5. U.S housing market experiences continued weakness.
  6. We predict a major event, political or otherwise, consequently distracting the public from the depressed state of the U.S economy. (ie: Israel vs Iran; Pakistani Anti-Americanism).
  7. Shift in the political economy of western states. Further integration of state and corporate powers. (ie: GE, JP Morgan Chase; Extension of TARP).
  8. Consolidation in the banking industry. FDIC continues to play a critical role. Too-big-to-fail is a mainstay in the banking industry. (Top 4 banks hold 50% of all deposits).
  9. GDP growth to remain subdued. (Consumer savings increase, corporate revenue remains soft, tax increases).
  10. Major shift in political appetite.
  11. “Bubble” phenomena will continue. Effecting the global economy. (China).

*Note: This list was first published on November 19, 2009; Updated December 11, 2009.